Alumina Supply Landscape in Surplus, Spot Prices Continue Downward Trend [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 9.18

Futures:In the night session, the most-traded alumina ao2601 contract opened at 2,944 yuan/mt, hit a high of 2,977 yuan/mt and a low of 2,932 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 2,967 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt or 1.02%, with open interest at 308,000 lots.

Ore side:As of September 17, 2025, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $75.44/mt, down $0.02/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $75/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $70/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $61.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the low-grade bauxite self-pick-up price excluding VAT in Shanxi was at 605 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. Currently, domestic ore supply in north China remains tight, but amid ample imported ore supply and high absolute bauxite inventory levels, a buyer's market has emerged with sentiment to drive down prices, leading to a slight decline in bauxite prices. Meanwhile, the alumina supply surplus persists, and prices continue to fall, resulting in low acceptance of high-priced bauxite. In the short term, bauxite prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

Spot prices:As of September 17, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 3,050.08 yuan/mt, down 5.89 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,971.5 yuan/mt, down 5.7 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Henan alumina index was at 3,038.11 yuan/mt, down 5.09 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,998.17 yuan/mt, down 7.05 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 3,207.57 yuan/mt, down 10.04 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 3,180.45 yuan/mt, down 8.12 yuan/mt MoM. During the day, one tender purchase transaction by an aluminum plant was inquired, equivalent to a Shanxi ex-works price of 2,970 yuan/mt. In the short term, spot alumina prices are expected to continue falling, but the pace of decline is slowing.

Industry news:

• On September 17, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $352/mt FOB Brazil, for November shipment.

Spot-futures price spread report:According to SMM data, on September 17, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 124.08 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.

Warrant report:On September 17, the total registered volume of alumina warrants was flat from the previous trading day at 151,300 mt, with Shandong region's total registered volume of alumina warrants flat from the previous trading day at 0, Henan region's total registered volume of alumina warrants flat from the previous trading day at 0, Guangxi region's total registered volume of alumina warrants flat from the previous trading day at 0, Gansu region's total registered volume of alumina warrants flat from the previous trading day at 0, and Xinjiang region's total registered volume of alumina warrants flat from the previous trading day at 151,300 mt.

Overseas Market:As of September 17, 2025, FOB Western Australia spot alumina prices were $330/mt, with ocean freight rates at $24/mt. The USD/CNY selling rate hovered around 7.13, translating to a domestic mainstream port selling price of approximately 2,930.58 yuan/mt, which was 119.5 yuan/mt lower than the SMM alumina index price. The import window remained open.

Summary: Overall, the alumina market fundamentals continued to show a surplus. Supply side, domestic operating capacity for alumina remained high, the import window stayed open, and domestic inventory levels were elevated, sustaining the overall supply surplus in the domestic alumina market. Demand side, aluminum smelters maintained high raw material inventory levels, and spot procurement continued to reflect weak sentiment. In the short term, spot alumina prices are expected to continue their downward trend.

[Except for publicly available information, other data are derived from public information, market communication, and the SMM internal database model, processed by SMM for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.]